October 5, 2016 Patrick Oliver-Kelley

Wake up American voters! ”I love the uneducated” Trump said recently. His policies are tweets long. He is incapable of producing ideas of depth and substance.’ Build a wall’, ‘reduce Moslem immigration’, ‘make NATO allies pay for their protection’. His ideas are easy to read, impossible to fathom and short on detail. How to achieve his economic boom is a mystery. His extra detail makes nothing clearer.

His economy is irreconcilable with facts. He says jobs are scarce, poverty is rising and incomes are stagnant. In reality, America’s economy is the strongest in the rich world. Unemployment is only 4.9%; the poverty rate has been falling since 2012 and median incomes have risen by 5% in real terms in the last two years.

His proposed treatments are no better than his diagnosis. He wants to scrape the wrong regulations. He promises to cut top rate income tax from 36.9% to 33%. He would cut corporate tax by half though he has given no plan for paying for all this bounty, other than to borrow. He only exacerbates his difficulty in coming up with the astronomical sums needed to pay for his ideas.

The worst part is his trade policies. His protectionism would wreck the economy (estimates are as high as by $5.3 trillion!); reduce wages and achieve little else. Manufacturing’s share of employment has fallen because of technology, not trade. His proposals would actually turn back productivity gains. His ideas would cause wages to fall. The few jobs that would return would cater only to domestic demand. High cost American goods would not be able to be sold to the world as they do now.

Protectionism threatens high value manufacturing jobs. It disrupts supply chains. Exports would fall. Export-supported jobs pay a wage premium of about 18%. Retaliatory tariffs on American exports would reduce overseas sales. Tariffs would eviscerate the purchasing power of American wages as imported goods would become more expensive. The poorest Americans would suffer the most. Trump has not explained what his ‘deals’ might look like- As big a mystery as his tax returns. His proposals threaten jobs and living standards of millions of Americans, the very same voters who are his strongest contingency, is the very same group that will suffer the most, if he were elected President.

Rarely has a candidate for president been less deserving.

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