Posts by pokelley:
- First, a border tax could see a 10% rise in the US dollar. It would also be bearish for global bonds and emerging market stocks.
- Second, Trump also has his sights set on China. And China has recently been publicly bearing its teeth, especially as regards the South China Sea. Investors seem to be under-appreciating the risk of a trade war, not to mention a possible real war.
- Third, the plan to slash Federal government spending could completely offset the fiscal stimulus stemming from the proposed tax cuts and infrastructure spending.
University of Chicago Professor Richard Thaler was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics for challenging the traditional idea that free markets reflect self-interests of rational individuals. They do things contrary to their own good. He created a new field called ‘Behavioral Economics’ which looks for ways governments or companies ‘nudge’ people to take actions for their long-term interests. Society relies on traits of character in a society. And in America we are experiencing less crime, but people are more scared. Contrary to Trump’s portrayal of ‘American Carnage,’ we are experiencing the paradox of fear. From ’93 to 2014, Americans became 62% less likely to become the victim of a violent crime. Persons aged 12 and older, per 1000 persons, victimhood dropped from 29.3 to just 11.1 in that period. So far for 2017, we are on track for the second lowest rate of victims any year since 1990. The paradox, it that in spite of the facts of safety, many Americans are convinced that crime is growing…Thank you Mr. Trump and for your rhetoric. Is increased domestic manufacturing a possible answer? If we could find properly trained workers manufacturing might prosper. However, studies show that the majority of past factory jobs losses were the result of investment in automation, which continue to pay off. American manufacturing has more than doubled output in real terms since the Reagan era, to $2trn today. Productivity is soaring. Output per labor hour rose by 47% between 2002 and 2915. American manufacturing activity hit a 13 year high in September. Our biggest problem is manufacturing cannot find enough skilled laborer! It is estimated that in the next ten years, there will be 3.5 million manufacturing jobs will go unfilled as a result. Public-Private partnerships aim to speed up the development of advanced techniques such as 3-D printing and digital manufacturing and to help train workers in these areas.
It will take more than a few of these partnerships to tackle America’s yawning skills gap. Initiatives, policy makers and manufacturers can judge what best works and copy successes. Continued technological progress will keep manufacturing employment from returning to past heights. But if skilled workers could be found, they could guide machines and the sector’s output could really take off.
The Tea Party prepared the way for Trump’s insurgency. A serious effort at the deficit would have involved entitlement reform, moderated defense spending or rises and a shutdown of government when they were not forthcoming. The 40-odd congressmen demanded highly partisan, selective cuts that were proxy for antipathy to public spending, for redistribution, and to immigration. This also implied more defense spending and no cuts to social security. What we truly need is a center-right party committed to prudent fiscal restraint, without rancor.
Candidate Donald Trump made aggressive claims about growing the U.S. economy by his plan would raise GDP more than 4%. Then, he stepped up that claim during the third presidential debate saying: “And I actually think we can go higher than 4 percent. I think you can go to 5 percent or 6 percent.” The United States has not seen consistent economic growth of 5-6 percent since the 1940s, or 4 percent since the 1950s and 1960s. Growth in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s was only slightly above 3 percent. Since 2000, it has been less than that, at 1.6 percent. For the next decade, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected U.S. GDP growth of approximately 2 percent per year.
Trump’s proposed fiscal policy of tax cuts and increased government spending are not likely to result in a sustained increase in GDP expansion. We think real growth will be short of the 50-200 percent increase over CBO projections that have been promised. We would like to be wrong on this point, but to date we evaluate Trump’s fiscal proposals as unlikely to overcome major headwinds of high debt, low productivity growth and stagnant workforce growth. The latter two have not generally been negative headwinds, but rather have been strong tailwinds for growth for most of U.S. history — so strong that the pernicious negatives of debt were masked when debt-to-income levels were lower than exist today.
Our economy continues on the longest economic expansion in American history, well prior to the recent presidential election, at a pace of around 2%, about as much that is sustainable longer term. Weather related problems may slow the pace, but the trend is well established and is likely to persist. Home construction is modestly increasing held back by the lack of skilled labor and to a degree, the availability of credit. Infrastructure and military spending have been moderate despite Trump’s political spin. City, state and pension spending is and will likely continue constrained because their budgets are mainly in deficit and because of wide spread anti-tax sentiments. Plant and equipment investment is growing faster than GDP. Business inventory accumulation remains low perhaps because of internet innovations that appear to be reshaping consumer practices.
Since employment growth is bound to diminish as the ranks of the unemployed are depleted (the current unemployment rate of 4.4% is unlikely to fall much further), consumption growth, too, is liable to slow. Once monthly payroll job increases decline significantly, as is probable by mid-2018 if not sooner, sales gains will erode and talk of recession will revive–possibly easing the political gridlock over tax reduction.
I have spent many years of my life outside the US. Living abroad reinforced the idea that what is noblest of our country is exactly its openness: Its openness to talent, to new ideas, to new ways of doing things, to new blood. We are a welcoming society. We don’t build walls, we build towers to seek new horizons and new friends. What is Ellis Island all about if it is not about Welcome? What about NASA and the Peace Corps? These are not isolationist tendencies.
My America is a place that gives immigrants and “the wretched refuse” of the world — the words on the Statue of Liberty — a chance to make this arena for their dreams and ambitions, despite all the difficulties of adjustment. My America is not the one that builds a wall to keep people out. Many of you have lived it in your own lives. America is hardly overrun with immigrants: Their percentage of population is lower than in any decade between 1860 and 1930. Post-World War II, when the population of immigrants fell to 4.7%, that was when America began to stagnate. The potential growth of any economy has, is the sum of workforce and productivity growth.
With baby boomers retiring, the rest of us and our economy need immigration more than ever. The rule of thumb is that 10,000 boomers will hit retirement age every day for years. Someone has to do their work — and someone has to replace their consumption.
America is a confused place today. What has gone wrong is a decline in trust, as defined as the expectation that other people will act in ways that are fair to you. Since Trump’s electioneering and his election, there is precious little of trust about. After his Charlottesville performance, he shows himself to be politically inept, morally barren and temperamentally unfit for his office. The harm will spill over into the rest of his agenda.
Those who say most American can be trusted has declined from 44% in ’76 to 32% in 2016. My fear is that this distrust will contribute to our decline and eventual autocracy. “Trust has been our secret sauce,” says James Dimon of JPMorganChase…reconciling this distrust with the rosy business outlook is tricky. Distrust is toxic because it makes doing business more expensive. Trust in Big Business has fallen from 74% in 1976 to 61% in June of this year. No question that the financial crisis of 2007-8 blew a giant hole in the reputation of business and finance. Another measure is the revenue of legal firms rose by 103% from 1997 to 2012. My fear is that the country’s vast stock of trust built over a very long period of time is being depleted quickly.
The US economy continued its record streak of jobs growth adding 209,000 jobs for the 82nd month in a row to July. Second quarter GDP growth should increase to 2.9% reflecting stronger than expected retail Number. This is the ninth year of economic expansion.
What is critical to understand in light of the current political debate, is that contrary to conventional wisdom, less-skilled immigration does not just knock less-educated Americans out of their jobs. It most often leads to the creation of new jobs- at better wages- for natives, too. Most notable is that it helps many Americans to move up the income ladder. And by stimulating investment and reallocating work, in increases productivity.
There is no clear connection between less immigration and more jobs for Americans. Rather, the prevailing view among economists is that immigration increases economic growth, improving the lives of the immigrants and the lives of the people who are already here. Economists agree that other factors, notably technological improvements, are primarily responsible for the broader deterioration in the fortunes of the American working class. You might consider, for starters, the enormous demand for low-skilled workers, which could well go unmet as the baby boom generation ages out of the labor force, eroding the labor supply. Eight of the 15 occupations expected to experience the fastest growth between 2014 and 2024 — personal care and home health aides, food preparation workers, janitors and the like — require no schooling at all.
But the argument for low-skilled immigration is not just about filling an employment hole. The millions of immigrants of little skill who swept into the work force in the 25 years to the onset of the Great Recession- the men washing dishes in the back of restaurants, the women emptying trash bins of office buildings- have largely improved the lives of Americans.
The politics of immigration are driven, to this day, by the proposition that immigrant laborers take the jobs and depress the wages of Americans competing with them in the work force. It is a mechanical statement of the law of supply and demand: More workers spilling in over the border will inevitably reduce the price of work.
This proposition underpins President Trump’s threat to get rid of the 11 million unauthorized immigrants living in the country by half and create a point system to ensure that only immigrants with high skills are allowed entrance in the future.
But it is largely wrong. It misses many things: that less-skilled immigrants are also consumers of American-made goods and services; that their cheap labor raises economic output and also reduces prices. It misses the fact that their children tend to have substantially more skills. In fact, the children of immigrants contribute more to state fiscal coffers than do other native-born Americans.
We see supervillains bent on our destruction. But really, the threats we face are weak leaders without many options, cultivating fear and chaos as their best, and perhaps last, hope of survival.
The US economy entered the ninth consecutive year of expansion. GDP for the second quarter increased by 2.6% and there are no signs that this trend might change. Since mid-2009, GDP growth has averaged 2.1%, while earlier years averaged over 3.6%. The difference is that today’s economy is vastly larger than those of the 1980s and 1990s.
This slow but steady growth has produced a long stretch of job creation and the economy is on a sound footing. The stock market appears to be fully valued given this outlook, but corporate profits should continue to grow. Consumers are confident and notwithstanding the circus we are seeing in Washington DC our outlook is rosy. Trump’s claim to overhaul the tax code and to renegotiate trade deals, that he can get the economy moving in excess of 3%. No breakout is imminent. The economy is firmly entrenched at a little better than 2%.
Trump’s fatuous decision to spurn the Paris agreement was opposed by most of his advisers, most big American firms and two-thirds of the American voters. It will not give life to the US coal industry nor will it solve problems with American environmental policy. He has chosen to abuse the health of the planet, to test the patience of America’s allies and insult the intelligence of his supporters and he is actively diminishing the image and reputation of the US world-wide.
Reducing unemployment without sparking inflation is the Holy Grail of the Fed. Mid-June the Fed raised rates by a quarter point (range now 1-1.25%). With an inflation target of 2%. But unemployment is below the “Natural” rate and seems to be permanent at 4.3%. It is possible that inflation will take off when unemployment gets too low, such as happened in the late 1960s? With Trump promising tax cuts and his being able to replace Ms. Yellen early next year, history may yet repeat itself. All this calls into question the ability of the Fed to hit its inflation target.
But the Fed has an unforgiving pessimism about American productivity. If this bleak view is wrong, perhaps the Fed itself is part of the blame for slow growth. Productivity growth is cyclical: it depends on whether the economy is booming or busting. Economies have growth speed limits, determined by changes in population, innovation, and productivity. So long as inflation remains low and stable, it is possible that productivity boosting steps are still left on the table. When productivity rose during recessions, the US began to suffer a rash of jobless recoveries. This is because firms began responding to recessions by eliminating routine jobs through reorganization, outsourcing, and automation. The way to know if America can manage a repeat performance is to test the economy’s limits. Raising our 2% target would offer a chance for such an experiment.
Meanwhile, Trump seems to be bent on marginalizing The United States. The world will now turn to China for leadership. US leadership in the Singapore Shangri-La Dialogue exemplified America’s commitment to keeping the peace in Asia especially in the South China Sea, that leadership has now gone the way of the Dodo- Trump is allowing China to turn it into a Chinese Lake. The perception is heightened that His America First rhetoric except perhaps for North Korea’s nuclear threat, is at the expense of the rest of the world, wrecking the world order America itself is responsible for creating. Even a few other smaller Asian nations have proposed joining China (SCO) in its own patrols and that they join in joint navy patrols. Trump took us out of the Paris Climate accord, China’s Belt and road infrastructure program is a gilded instrument of globalization of a new Chinese order. China joined the Davos meeting presenting itself as a champion of globalism and open markets. China is on the move, even if it is reluctant to push hard on the outer boundaries and seems less keen to take on leadership responsibilities. It is more concerned with domestic perceptions. That Trump is allowing the Beacon of America to dim, seems indisputable.
The Fed is likely to raise rates yet again, but perhaps not this month. It is looking to trim its $4.5 trillion balance sheet which will influence it interest rates hikes. Housing starts have been puzzling in that costs are rising and sales are slow. Jack Welch ex GE Chairman observed that our great economy risks being eroded by the toxic political debate in our country.
The US has two geopolitical imperatives: dominating the world’s oceans and ensuring the disunity of Eurasia. Trump’s doctrine has no room for transatlantic alliances. He is pursuing a mercantilist and an isolationist foreign policy. This endangers our transatlantic and our American anchor in Eurasia. This will end American global hegemony. His isolationism will put paid to our alliances and commitments abroad. His mercantilism focuses on trade balances which brings China, Germany, Mexico, and Japan onto his radar screen. The immigration debate is about more than just economics. Research has consistently found that the economic benefits of immigration are huge for immigrants, themselves, but that the economy as a whole also benefits greatly.
One of the great achievements of free society in a stable democracy is that many people, for much of the time, need not think about politics at all. The president of a free country may dominate the news cycle many days – but he is not omnipresent – and because we live under the rule of law, we can afford to turn the news off at times. A free society means being free of those who rule over you – to do the things you care about, your passions, your pastimes, your loves – to exult in that blessed space where politics doesn’t intervene. In that sense, it seems to me, we already live in a country with markedly less freedom than we did a month ago. It’s less like living in a democracy than being a child trapped in a house where there is an abusive and unpredictable father, who will brook no reason, respect no counter-argument, admit no error, and always, always ups the ante.
Trump said in his inaugural address that “it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first and that America does not seek to impose its own values on anyone else. This is in stark contrast from the polices of both Bush and Obama. Trump’s foreign policy underpinnings are nationalism. So NATO and the EU which have nothing to do with immediate, domestic economic goals of the US, these two organizations are not worth supporting. NATO demands a US overseas commitment with little material gain in return. Obama complained, just as Trump did, about the failure of member states to meet their 2% of GDP on defense. But Obama tried cajoling the members, not a tactic Trump has in his playbook. No matter how hard the Europeans tried to explain the intricacies of the EU, Trump was not able to comprehend. The EU runs a large current account surplus with the US, for Trump then, The EU is a rival viewed through his mercantilist lens, not a foe. Both Obama and Trump see that it is a multipolar world and that the US is in relative decline and cannot act unilaterally. But Obama sought to enhance US power by relying on allies and supranational organizations. Trump’s solution is to retreat into Fortress America. The risk must be that this approach may push America’s traditional allies away from Washington. Angela Merkel said over the weekend that Europe could no longer completely rely on the US. “We Europeans must really take our own destiny into our own hands.” The US is no longer a trusted ally. “We are Six against one.” The one being Trump and “talks were very difficult and very unsatisfactory.”
Global growth is expected to be 3.4% this year. Janet Yellen says that we need fresh ideas and investments that can raise the output per worker, spend more on roads, bridges, and other infrastructure projects, change tax regulations, increase investment in infrastructure and in people. Avoid new trade barriers that hinder global competition. Above all, avoid seriously undermining trade, migration, capital flows, and the sharing of technologies across borders. Are you listening Trump?
In America, in Europe, in Asia, and in emerging markets- Broad based economic upswings are under-way. Rich world and developing world economies will put on a synchronized growth spurt. Despite this, a populist, economic nationalistic rebellion is also underway and sadly, is actively being underwritten by the White House. This dissonance is dangerous. Globalization is out of favor. If populists win credit for a more buoyant economy, their policies will gain credence, with devastating effects.
Globally, we have experienced many false starts and there are reasons to fret: China’s debt mountain; the flaws in the foundations of the euro; Trump’s protectionist tendencies, to name a few. In the last ten years. happily, America’s economy has continued to grow in-spite of it all. The Fed raised rates for a second time in three months, mainly because of the US economy being so strong. But also, because the fears about Chinese over-capacity and of a yuan devaluation have receded. Japan’s fourth quarter capital expenditures grew faster than it has in three years; The Euro area has been gathering steam since 2015; The European Commission’s economic-sentiments index is as high as it has been since 2011; South Korea notched up export growth by over 20%; Taiwanese manufacturers have expanded for 12 consecutive months; The Brazilian economy, with inflation expectations diminishing, interest rates are now falling; Both Russia and Brazil are likely to add to global GDP this year; Suppliers are restocking; Signals are strongest in manufacturing;. Demand for semiconductors has been picking up around the world; Business spending on machinery and equipment is picking up; American employers added 235,000, non-farm payroll jobs, in February; In fact, the economy in the US has been flashing green lights for seven months.
Entrenching this recovery calls for a delicate balancing act. As inflation expectation rises, so does complications to macro-economic policies. The biggest risk is the lessons politicians draw from this strength. Trump is not shy to sing his own praises at the merest positive sign, e.g. employment, or confidence numbers. He claims to have magically jump started job creation with sheer braggadocio. The US economy has added jobs for 77 months in a row! What is alarming is that Trump is so heavily tactical and seems disinterested in any kind of strategy.
In America, imports of both consumer goods and capital goods are up. Maybe it is true that Trump’s rhetoric has lifted ‘animal spirits’ of business people; however, and most importantly, the upswing has nothing to do with Trump’s America First’ economic nationalism. If anything, the global upswing vindicates the experts that today’s populists decry. Financial recoveries from crashes take a long time to be corrected. Experts agree that the best route to success is to clean up balance sheets, to keep monetary policy loose and to apply fiscal stimulus.
The breadth of the improvement- from Asia to Europe and America- makes for greater confidence that a pickup is underway. The tussle over who created the recovery is about more than bragging rights. Endorsement of populist policies would encourage insurgent political parties all over the world. Trump’s proposed tax cuts would pump up the US economy, an economy that is Least in need of stimulus. A fiscal splurge at home and a stronger dollar internationally, would widen our trade deficit. By giving populists credit where it is not due, sends all the wrong signals. Populists deserve NONE of the credit.
The Trump administration’s vision for disengagement from the world is a godsend for China. Look at Trump’s proposed budget, which would cut spending on “soft power” — diplomacy, foreign aid, international organizations -by 29 percent. Beijing, by contrast, has tripled the budget of its foreign Ministry in the past decade. And that doesn’t include its massive spending on aid and development across Asia and Africa. Just tallying some of Beijing’s key development commitments are estimated at $1.4 trillion.
The FOMC meeting produced several dovish surprises. First, the number of participants who expected four rate hikes or more did not increase. Second, the estimate for the structural unemployment was scaled down by a tenth of a percentage point to 4.7%. Third, the FOMC statement said that the Fed was looking for a “sustained” return to 2% inflation. Fourth, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari dissented in favor of keeping rates unchanged, which few people had expected.
Having said all this, the market’s reaction still seems rather excessive. The key message from the March meeting was that the Fed now sees inflation reached its 2% target. Consistent with this, the FOMC raised its growth forecastfor 2018 from 2.0% to 2.1%. In addition, its inflation forecast for this is1.9%. Median projection for the funds rate went up to 3% for 2019.
All it means is that the Fed will not react too aggressively if core inflation were to drift somewhat above 2. The implication for investors is that the dollar is likely to rebound. Indeed, the longer-term risk to the dollar is not that the Fed turns out be too dovish, but that it turns out to be too hawkish – that it raises rates so much that the economy begins to roll over. However, with interest rates still low in absolute terms, this is more of a risk for late 2018 or 2019 than it is for the next 12 months. As such, investors should continue to cyclically overweight global equities, favoring stock markets such as those in Europe and Japan that have a “higher beta” to global growth than the U.S. A modest bearish tilt towards long-term government bonds is also warranted.
Warning signs are flashing. Valuations are worryingly high. The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio is just under 30 times in the US market. Only twice has it been higher- during the dotcom era of the 1990s, and in 1929, just before the crash. There may be reasons for this. First, investors’ exuberance comes after a long period of restraint. Second, there are indications of a pickup in the global economy: Global trade is picking up; The volume of South Korea exports rose nearly 20% in the year. The fastest in five years. Commodity prices are ten per cent higher than a year ago; And European growth forecasts have been revised higher. Third, expectations of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation from Trump have invigorated the animal spirits in US. Small businessmen confidence is at a 40-year high. Profits for independent businesses are to rise by 12% for 2017. This is mainly because low oil price is just beginning to hit the energy market.
The caution is though- American economic data is mixed. After the eight years of strength, the recovery is looking long in the tooth. Consumer spending and industrial production fell in January. We think Trump’s stimulus package will take longer to get underway and even longer to take effect. And more importantly, his program of cutting immigration and throwing, people out of the country and threatening trade sanctions will harm growth. Also, the Fed policy is becoming less accommodating. Finally, China seems to be tightening its interest rate policy, too. A deeper problem lurks in a contradiction between politics and economics. European elections appear to set up chances of hammering established parties. Workers are backing insurgents candidates. But mathematics cannot square the surge in real wages with the market rally based on the hope of profits rising faster than GDP. Rejecting globalization, populism is a menace to the free movement of goods, labor and capital. It is impossible to keep both populist voters and the equity markets happy. Investors should keep their parachutes handy.
The dollar is the world’s principal anchor currency, and the dollar standard is one of the most vulnerable pillars of global stability. It has grown more important as the world has globalized. After The fracturing of this system under inflationary pressures in the 1970-80s, the dollar became more central than ever. As markets opened to international trade, markets sought stability and turned to the dollar. Global reserves now are more than $10 trn. Dollar denominated assets for much of those reserves. Despite their reserve holding, many economies have lost control of their domestic monetary policy because of US Fed policies on global appetite for risk. Many governments hold large amounts of safe but low-yielding dollar assets. This allows America to run persistent current-account deficits.
This is a privilege America has but Trump seems eager to discard. The current-account gap underlying financial flows, and taxing imports will simply cause the dollar to rise in an offsetting fashion. The dollar should share its role with other currencies. but the yuan, China’s currency, is inhibited by unreliable statistics and tight limits on Chinese financial markets. Increased dependence on China is not attractive. The euro is constrained by existential political risks and the scarcity of safe euro-denominated bonds. Should Trump’s efforts to ‘Make America Great Again’ through tax cuts and spending, the deficits will increase and inflation will rise, and American assets might lose their luster. Lookout for soaring prices and soaring interest rates. Alternatively, the dollar might go the way of the inter-war gold standard. Governments would put up tariffs and then withdraw from the system altogether through the erection of capital controls. Trump supporters, be careful what you wish for!
If you look at the great companies driving the US as an innovation hub, you will see that many companies were started by immigrants or the children of immigrants, like Apple and Google. Steve Jobs, whose father was a Syrian refugee and Sergey Brin who was born in Moscow, for example. Though immigrants make up about 13 percent of the US population, they contribute nearly 15 percent of the nation’s economic output. “It is an undeniable privilege for every man to prove himself right in the thesis that the world is his enemy,” wrote diplomat George Kennan. “For if he reiterates it frequently enough and makes it the background of his conduct, he is bound eventually to be right.” Few world leaders embody this ethos than Donald Trump and the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump’s demonizing NAFTA helped him to the presidency, but in reality millions of jobs are supported by that pact.
Cummins Engine, an Indiana founded company, exports over three fourths of its US engine production, and has sales in 190 countries. America offers lower shipping costs and less red tape when exporting and most importantly, has lower and fewer custom duties when components are imported from cost-effective suppliers, and add on, access to American trained engineers. Cummins runs a vast supply chain to and from Mexico. Cummins representatives say, “Our jobs overwhelmingly exist because of trade. We are not in a regional economy, we are global.”
The flipside to selling to so many countries is that Cummins cannot simply manufacture in one place, they must know local markets and local conditions. “If you are good at exports but not with imports, generally speaking, most people will not strike the deal with you,” said a Cummins executive. Trade must be made to work and workers must be convinced that they have a place in today’s economy.
Recently, Trump brought two dozen manufacturing CEOS to the White House to encourage them to committing to restoring factory jobs lost to foreign competition. These CEOS suggested that there are plenty of openings for US factory jobs, but too few American candidates are sufficiently qualified to fill them. The men and women who show up on our shores and our doors are ready to study, work and participate to make us stronger, smarter, more competitive and more attuned to the rest of the globe. Trump has, thus far, failed to mention these facts.
Navigating a Fed tightening cycle, a divergence between economic and profit performance, and significant patience with respect to a rollout of fiscal stimulus, forgetting international relations for the moment, will be critical drivers to equity performance in the new year. We expect the dollar to remain firm based on the relentless widening in interest rate differential and policy divergence with the rest of the world.
President Trump’s ‘black’ inaugural speech highlighted that he has not tempered his “America First” policy prescription, and policy uncertainty has increased again. His agenda is still a moving target, but three key risks have emerged for financial markets.
The good news is that the major countries, including China appear to have entered a synchronized growth acceleration. There is more to the equity market rally to come. The global profit recession is over and the rebound has been even more impressive, than could have been expected. So long as the US protectionist policies do not derail the growth acceleration, corporate Earnings Per Share, world-wide will continue robust.
The Fed will raise rates three times this year. The Bank of Japan will continue to target 10 year JGB yield of 0%, but the ECB will begin hinting at another tapering in the fall. US policy is very fluid, but for now the new administration has boosted confidence and thereby reinforced a global cyclical upswing. As long as protectionist policies implemented this year do not unduly undermine US growth, then stocks will continue beat bonds by a wide margin.
However, one additional, cautionary, thought:
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved the hands of its Doomsday Clock forward by 30 seconds to two and a half minutes to midnight, in response to Trump’s ‘unsettling and ill-considered’ comments about the use of nuclear weapons, growing concerns over North Korea and worries about relations with Russia. This is the closest the clock has been to midnight since 1953.